David A. Hager
Thank you, and good morning everyone.
As Scott mentioned earlier, Tony will cover fourth quarter results later in the call. My comments today will focus on our outlook for 2018 and the strategic direction of Devon over the next several years, which we have branded as our 2020 Vision.
However, before I get into my prepared remarks, I want to address a topic that we have received a lot of questions on, and that is why we have not authorized a share repurchase program.
Let me be clear.
As we generate more cash through our operations and asset divestiture programs, we will reward our shareholders through higher dividends and opportunistic share buybacks.
However, our near-term priority is to use a significant portion of our large cash balance to reduce the debt associated with our upstream business. Why is this our top near-term priority? With our world-class Delaware and STACK positions shifting to full development mode, it is absolutely critical that we possess a top-tier balance sheet in order to maintain consistent activity levels through all cycles. Commodity prices go up and down, but our plan to execute on a steadier and more measured development program through all cycles will optimize returns and value associated with our development programs. And while we certainly could have authorized a couple billion dollar share repurchase program today and had our stock price positively respond to this type of announcement, it is not the correct move for Devon right now.
Our business is performing at a very high level, and with the continuation of current commodity prices, coupled with imminent asset sales during 2018, I am confident in stating that there will be increasing shareholder returns this year.
Moving to slide 3. With our world-class assets in the Delaware and STACK shifting to full-field development, I can confidently state that Devon has reached an inflection point as a company. With our low-risk development programs focused in our top-tier U.S. resource plays, we expect to deliver a dramatic step change in capital efficiency while delivering attractive corporate-level returns. In 2018, we plan to invest approximately $2.3 billion in our upstream properties with the majority of this capital concentrated on high-return developments in the economic core of the Delaware and STACK. This focused development plan allows us to bring online greater than 25% more wells than in 2017 for a very similar amount of capital investment.
Additionally, this program is self-funded at our base planning scenario of $50 WTI pricing. On a retained asset basis, our capital plans in 2018 are expected to drive U.S. oil production growth of roughly 14% compared to 2017.
Importantly, the trajectory of Devon's U.S. oil production profile is expected to steadily advance throughout the year and exit 2018 at rates greater than 25% higher than the 2017 average. I do want to be clear on this.
We have no shortage of highly attractive growth opportunities within our portfolio and could definitely grow at much higher rates in 2018 if we chose to optimize top line production with our capital allocation.
However, we are absolutely committed to doing business differently in the E&P space and we are optimizing our capital allocation to maximize corporate-level returns while delivering capital-efficient cash flow growth. We fundamentally believe that a steadier and more measured investment program through all cycles is the correct strategy to efficiently expand our business and maximize Devon's valuation in the marketplace as opposed to pursuing maximum production growth in any one given year.
Turning to slide 4, while Devon's business outlook in 2018 is very strong, I am much more excited about the expanding profitability and improving returns our business is capable of delivering on a multi-year basis.
However, before I get into the specific performance targets associated with our three-year plan, I do want to cover the strategic principles that underline or underpin our business model and will guide our behavior over the next several years.
First, to maximize and steadily expand the cash flow of our upstream business, we will continue to deploy leading technologies to optimize the productivity of our base production wedge.
We also will aggressively work to improve our per-unit cash cost to get the most value we can out of every barrel produced. And while maximizing cash flow is a top priority, we are in a depletion business that requires significant reinvestment.
Given this dynamic, continuous improvement and capital efficiency will separate the winners and losers in this highly competitive space. And at Devon, our ability to stretch every investment dollar further is one of our top competitive advantages going forward. With our industry-leading multi-zone development techniques at the Delaware Basin and STACK, we are positioned to deliver not only dramatic improvements in capital efficiency, but also substantially increase the net present value of our acreage through improved recoveries and more efficient operations. With our Delaware Basin and STACK assets rapidly building momentum and operating scale, we are committed to simplifying our asset portfolio by selling less competitive assets.
While we'll not go into the details of which assets we are currently evaluating to sell, we will be patient and sell assets only at the right price and as market conditions allow to ensure we bring forward the appropriate value for our shareholders.
Another critical objective is to further improve our investment-grade financial strength.
Our goal is to achieve a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 1.0 to 1.5 times and maintain the ratio in a sustained $50 WTI price environment.
As I touched on to begin the call, another very important strategic intent of our 2020 Vision is our commitment to returning increasing amounts of cash to shareholders. Jeff will provide more details on both our debt targets and the return of cash to shareholders later in the call.
Moving to slide 5, we expect the strategic principles supporting our 2020 Vision to advance several key performance targets over the next three years. Keep in mind, with these targets we're simply showcasing how we expect our business to perform under a flat $50 WTI and $3 Henry Hub price deck.
As we all know, industry conditions will evolve, and when they do, we will recalibrate our actions to optimize returns and capital efficiency.
First and foremost, with this disciplined game plan, we expect to deliver fully burdened corporate-level returns in excess of 15%. In conjunction with these attractive corporate returns, we expect capital requirements over the next three years to be funded within operating cash flow at a $50 WTI price point. Under this scenario, our capital programs will drive oil production growth of greater than 25% annually in the Delaware and STACK, advancing our total U.S. oil production by around 15% per year over this time period.
In addition to growth in high-value production, another key component of our strategy is to enhance profitability through the aggressive improvement of our cost structure. By 2020, we expect a combination of lower operating costs, declining interest expense and an improved overhead structure to translate into per-unit cash cost savings of approximately 15%. These cost savings, combined with strong oil production growth for the Delaware and STACK, will expand Devon's upstream business cash flow by more than 15% annually through 2020. Put another way, given our advantaged portfolio, we will be able to attractively grow our business on a sustainable basis at a flat price deck of $50 WTI pricing.
We will also have tremendous torque to the upside at higher prices as well. At $60 WTI pricing, we would be able to generate $2.5 billion of cumulative free cash flow over the next three years.
As we build critical mass in the Delaware and STACK, we also are working to maximize shareholder value by simplifying our asset portfolio.
Given our resource-rich asset base, we see the potential to monetize in excess of $5 billion of noncore assets in a very thoughtful and measured fashion over the next few years. Combining these asset sale targets with our free cash flow generation capability at $60 WTI pricing, Devon's total cash inflows in excess of our planned capital requirements over the next three years could range up to 40% of our current market capitalization.
As this excess cash flow manifests itself during 2018 and beyond, I emphasize again, we will reward our shareholders through higher dividends and opportunistic share buybacks.
Moving to slide 6.
Another positive initiative underway at Devon is the steps we are taking to further align our management incentives with that of shareholders. In 2018, Devon will incorporate two return-oriented measures into our compensation packages.
As you can see on the slide, one measure will calculate cumulative returns on capital employed, while the other will calculate returns in our current drilling programs. Both return measures will be burdened by all corporate costs, which include G&A, corporate capital, land and all other technology initiatives.
Additionally, we are going to advance other shareholder-friendly initiatives in 2018 that would improve the transparency of our business results such as improved environmental sustainability reporting. I will provide updates on these initiatives in future calls. At this point, I will turn the call over to Tony Vaughn for additional commentary on our operations. Tony?